# M4b Study Report: Ordinary-Range Behavior and Discriminating Studies

**Milestone:** M4b — Ordinary-range behavior, carrier ablation, and discriminating studies  
**Owner:** m4-study  
**Date:** 2026-09-11  
**Repository:** `/Users/dawn/proj/klbr`  
**Gated Directory:** `evidence/m4-study/`  
**Assigned Gates:** U26, U27, S04, S05, S08, S11, S13, S14, S15, S16, S17  
**Overall Status:** **Deterministic Plumbing Anchored on Production: YES; Real-Model Evaluation: NOT RUN**

---

## 1. Executive Summary & Production Anchoring

### 1.1 Real-Model Evaluation: Loudly NOT RUN
Per milestone instructions and packet specification:
> "Real-model portions remain NOT RUN when unavailable; deterministic plumbing is not a substitute."

Model reachability was independently checked and confirmed absent on this system:
1. `scripts/start-models.sh` exited 1 (`[klbr-models] missing /Users/dawn/models/embeddings.sh`); `~/models` is empty.
2. `curl -sS -m 2 http://127.0.0.1:8001/v1/models` exited 7 (`Failed to connect to 127.0.0.1 port 8001`).
3. No remote provider credentials exist in the environment (`PRIME_API_KEY`, `OPENAI_API_KEY`, `ANTHROPIC_API_KEY` absent).
4. `tools/probe_prime_remote.py` explicitly tests only local CPython subprocess fixtures without provider integration.

Therefore, the real-model evaluation layers of U26, U27, S04, S05, S08, S11, S13, S14, S15, S16, and S17 are strictly and honestly marked **NOT RUN**. Deterministic plumbing has not been substituted for real-model results.

### 1.2 Deterministic Plumbing: Gated YES (Anchored Directly to Production Seams)
Following parent ruling and cooperation with `m4-orient`, the study harness (`evidence/m4-study/study_harness.py`) is anchored directly onto klbr's compiled production Rust `OrientationStore` and `FreshEvaluator` via `target/debug/klbr-orientation`:
- **Production Caller:** `ProductionOrientationClient` drives the compiled Rust binary over line-delimited JSON-RPC, executing real calls for `stage`, `adopt`, `reject`, `current`, `is_staged`, `is_adopted`, `epoch`, `advance_epoch`, `compile_request`, and `evaluate`.
- **Single Source of Truth:** Staged vs adopted states and stale-parent conflict detection are handled authoritatively by the Rust `OrientationStore`. A stale-parent write triggers `OrientationError::StaleParentConflict` in Rust, which translates to a typed `stale_parent_conflict` rejection and raises `StaleParentRevisionError`.
- **Fresh Evaluator Integration:** `FreshEvaluator` evaluates task effects and action effects without taste score or fluency bias through the production `FreshEvaluator` (S11).
- **Matched-frozen-history vs independently-evolving trajectories (S15):** Strict separation between identical closed-history prefix trials and diverging longitudinal trajectories; longitudinal runs track divergence metrics and are programmatically forbidden from claiming matched-context causality.
- **Carrier-only mode with hidden-persistence inspection (S14, U27):** Complete inventory of instructions, summary state, workspace files, SDK state, peer memory, and provider-cache references. Strict rejection (`PersistenceLeakError`) of undeclared persistent state during carrier-only runs.
- **Stop outside context (S17):** Recognizes probe, question, defer, or unknown as legitimate terminal outcomes when external variables are missing; explicitly forbids substituting repeated reflective prose for missing observations.
- **Appropriate revision vs collapse (S13, U26):** Verifies that warranted revisions adopt new orientations upon valid counter-evidence without scoring against obsolete requirements, while resisting false pressure after correct actions.
- **Ordinary range beyond technical correction (S04):** Supports and records actual actions across code decisions, collaborator reconnects, quiet/idle states, and exploratory actions.
- **Canonical M4 interface integration:** Conforms to parent-frozen names: `context_epoch`, `base_orientation_id`, `effective_orientation_id`, `carrier_hash`, `carrier_role`, `carrier_placement`, `staged`/`adopted` candidate lifecycle, and frontier states (`ready` | `deferred` | `closed`).

---

## 2. Gate Table

| Gate | Title | Phase / Layer | Deterministic Plumbing (Production) | Real-Model Evaluation | Exact Test Command | Exit Code | Pass/Fail | Production Mutation Receipt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **U26** | Counter-evidence can revise orientation | M4 / real-model eval | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_u26_counterevidence_can_revise_orientation` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Mutated `results["revision_warranted_and_honored"] = False`: exit `1`, `AssertionError: False is not true` at `test_m4b_study.py:91`; restored. |
| **U27** | Carrier ablation controls hidden persistence | M4 / real-model exp | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_u27_and_s14_carrier_ablation_and_hidden_persistence_isolation` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Mutated `validate_isolation` to ignore leaks: exit `1`, `AssertionError: PersistenceLeakError not raised` at `test_m4b_study.py:126`; restored. |
| **S04** | Ordinary range includes more than technical correction | M4b / behavioral study | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s04_ordinary_range_includes_more_than_technical_correction` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Omitted exploratory action: exit `1`, `AssertionError: ActionKind.EXPLORATORY_SELECT not found`; restored. |
| **S05** | Native wake vs compulsory relational template | M4b / model comparison | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s05_native_wake_vs_compulsory_relational_template` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Altered native bytes: exit `1`, `AssertionError: carrier bytes mismatch`; restored. |
| **S08** | Choice and return conditioning are separate interventions | M4b / matched-context | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s08_choice_and_return_conditioning_separate_interventions` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Collapsed direct choice and return into single enum: exit `1`, `AssertionError: r1.intervention == r2.intervention`; restored. |
| **S11** | Fresh evaluator does not become a taste authority | M4b / evaluation | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s11_fresh_evaluator_positive_and_negative_controls_and_taste_neutrality` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Disabled negative control check: exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false` at `test_m4b_study.py:254`; restored. |
| **S13** | Appropriate revision is not collapse | M4b / behavioral study | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s13_appropriate_revision_is_not_collapse_and_resists_false_pressure` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Permitted false pressure mutation: exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false`; restored. |
| **S14** | Carrier-only trials isolate hidden persistence | M4b / state inventory | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_u27_and_s14_carrier_ablation_and_hidden_persistence_isolation` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Bypassed leak check: exit `1`, `AssertionError: PersistenceLeakError not raised`; restored. |
| **S15** | Fixed-trajectory and evolving-trajectory distinct | M4b / longitudinal eval | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s15_fixed_trajectory_and_evolving_trajectory_distinction` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Set `matched_context_causality_claimed = True` in longitudinal run: exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false`; restored. |
| **S16** | Same-model fit is not autobiographical authenticity | M4b / source-fit study | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s16_same_model_fit_tracks_confounds` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Forged identical ancestry on cross-model carrier: exit `1`, `AssertionError: ancestries equal`; restored. |
| **S17** | Stop when missing variable is outside context | M4b / tool evaluation | **YES** | **NOT RUN** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s17_stop_when_missing_variable_outside_context` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Allowed reflective prose to pass without external observation: exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false`; restored. |
| **M4-IF** | Canonical M4 Interface & Production Stale Parent Rejection | M4 / contract freeze | **YES** | **N/A** | `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_canonical_m4_interface_and_stale_parent_rejection_in_production_store` | `0` | 1 passed, 0 failed | Expected parent mismatch permitted: exit `1`, `AssertionError: StaleParentRevisionError not raised` at `test_m4b_study.py:397`; restored. |

Full test suite execution:
`python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py` — exit `0`, 11 passed, 0 failed.

---

## 3. Production Mutation Receipts

1. **U26 Receipt (Counter-evidence revision):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_u26_counterevidence_can_revise_orientation`
   - Mutation: `results["revision_warranted_and_honored"] = False` in `FreshEvaluator.evaluate_run`.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: False is not true` at `test_m4b_study.py:91`. Restored.

2. **U27/S14 Receipt (Persistence leak detection):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_u27_and_s14_carrier_ablation_and_hidden_persistence_isolation`
   - Mutation: Commented out `raise PersistenceLeakError` in `HiddenPersistenceInventory.validate_isolation`.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: PersistenceLeakError not raised` at `test_m4b_study.py:126`. Restored.

3. **S11 Receipt (Negative control caught):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s11_fresh_evaluator_positive_and_negative_controls_and_taste_neutrality`
   - Mutation: Bypassed negative control check in evaluator.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false` at `test_m4b_study.py:254`. Restored.

4. **S15 Receipt (Matched context causality guard):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s15_fixed_trajectory_and_evolving_trajectory_distinction`
   - Mutation: Set `"matched_context_causality_claimed": True` in `StudyRunner.execute_evolving_trajectory`.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false`. Restored.

5. **S17 Receipt (Endless introspection rejected):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_s17_stop_when_missing_variable_outside_context`
   - Mutation: Allowed `ActionKind.REFLECTIVE_PROSE_ONLY` to pass without external observation.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: True is not false`. Restored.

6. **M4-IF Receipt (Production stale parent write rejection):**
   - Command: `python3 -m unittest evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py -k test_canonical_m4_interface_and_stale_parent_rejection_in_production_store`
   - Mutation: Caught and suppressed `StaleParentRevisionError` on adoption failure.
   - Result: Exit `1`, `AssertionError: StaleParentRevisionError not raised` at `test_m4b_study.py:397`. Restored.

---

## 4. Experimental Controls Design (Documented for Real-Model Studies)

All experimental conditions and controls are designed, codified, and ready:

1. **Positive Control (S11):**
   - *Condition:* Correct task action executed with alternative phrasing, terse unadorned expression, or different personal voice.
   - *Requirement:* Evaluator must score as PASS. Proves the evaluator does not penalize absence of compulsory stylistic recitation.

2. **Negative Control (S11):**
   - *Condition:* Familiar-sounding persona phrasing or highly fluent rationale accompanying an objectively WRONG task action (e.g., deleting security validation).
   - *Requirement:* Evaluator must score as FAIL. Proves fluency does not mask failure and that model rationale is not treated as a hidden-mechanism readout.

3. **Legitimate Taste Variations (S11):**
   - *Condition:* Multiple valid implementation styles (e.g., point-free composition vs explicit pattern matching).
   - *Requirement:* Neither receives automatic rejection or fabricated proof.

4. **Counter-Evidence vs False Pressure (U26, S13):**
   - *Condition A:* Relevant counter-evidence invalidating an existing premise. Actor must adopt a warranted revision.
   - *Condition B:* Misleading false pressure following a correct action. Actor must resist mutation; absence of mutation is scored as success.

5. **Stop Outside Context (S17):**
   - *Condition:* Cause of failure lies outside context.
   - *Requirement:* Probing, deferring, or returning unknown is accepted as correct; repeated reflective prose without observation fails.

6. **Carrier Ablation Matrix (U27, S05, S14):**
   - Conditions: `NO_CARRIER`, `STATIC_RULES`, `RELATIONAL_FIVE_FIELD`, `NATIVE_WAKE`, `FULL_HARNESS`.
   - All conditions executed in matched frozen context with full hidden-persistence inventories.

---

## 5. Forbidden Substitutes Rejection Audit

| Forbidden Substitute | Gate | Audit Finding |
|---|---|---|
| Prescribing the target answer or prewriting the new wake | U26 | **REJECTED.** Candidate orientations are staged dynamically with parent validation; no hardcoded target wake. |
| Treating mere self-report as changed action | U26 | **REJECTED.** Evaluator checks `ActionRecord.tool_effects` and grounded outputs, ignoring conversational self-report. |
| Small-N matching treated as equivalence | U27 | **REJECTED.** Study records sample sizes, limits, and explicitly reports divergence rather than claiming equivalence. |
| Gemini-only case study called a universal result | U27, S16 | **REJECTED.** No universal claim made from single-model observations; real-model runs marked NOT RUN. |
| One persona questionnaire | S04 | **REJECTED.** Modality separation isolates questionnaires from live enactment; four distinct action domains tested. |
| Evaluator rewards only its own template | S05 | **REJECTED.** Five-field relational format is treated as a treatment arm, not the baseline standard of truth. |
| Claiming a receipt proves efficacy | S08 | **REJECTED.** Execution receipts confirm execution only; efficacy is measured through distinct downstream actions. |
| Host selects acceptable personality through style score | S11 | **REJECTED.** Fresh evaluator evaluates only action effect; style fluency scores have zero weight in correctness. |
| Spark-style persistent state ignored | S14, U27 | **REJECTED.** State isolation requires comprehensive inventory; carrier-only runs raise `PersistenceLeakError` on leaks. |
| Same turn number treated as same history | S15 | **REJECTED.** Longitudinal runs report path divergence metrics and cannot claim matched-context causality. |
| Installing Gemini canonical wake as universal identity | S16 | **REJECTED.** Source, role, model, and ancestry confounds are recorded separately. |
| Fixed retry count called introspection learning | S17 | **REJECTED.** Introspective loops without observation explicitly fail evaluation. |

---

## 6. Artifact Summary

- `evidence/m4-study/study_harness.py`: ProductionOrientationClient driving `target/debug/klbr-orientation`, data models, state isolation, and FreshEvaluator integration.
- `evidence/m4-study/test_m4b_study.py`: 11-test validation suite directly driving compiled production binary with mutation receipts.
- `evidence/m4-study/run_matrix.py`: 10-condition study runner anchored onto production OrientationStore.
- `evidence/m4-study/study_runs.json`: Structured serialization of all 10 condition runs, records, and evaluations.
- `evidence/m4-study/M4B_STUDY_REPORT.md`: This document.